Very Long Oscar Predictions

EDIT (2/25 12:25AM) So it looks like I went 16 correct and 8 wrong for 67%...not too shabby.....I think The Bourne Ultimatum wins and especially The Golden Compass threw me the most



Ah...now that the writers strike is over...there will be nothing like experiencing a bloated 3+ hour self celebration of narcissism, sadly minus Debbie Allen dance numbers. Unlike many other bloggers, I will not be live blogging the event, since my computer is nowhere near a tv, and I will be too glued to the set to want to write anything about it. I'm also quite interested in the Spirit Awards the day before, as I had the honor of voting for them this year and want to see if my choices turn out to be the winners. But this post is about the Oscars....so let's see what we have.....

Best Actor:

Tommy Lee Jones and Viggo Mortensen should be happy with their nominations. Johnny Depp might win in a split vote scenario. George Clooney has the clout, but I believe DANIEL DAY-LEWIS gave the leading performance of the year and should easily walk away with the prize.

Best Supporting Actor:

Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Tom Wilkinson should be happy with their nominations. Casey Affleck has an extremely outside shot. Hal Holbrook has a decent chance if the Academy goes the 'honoring the body of work' route. However, they didn't do that for Laurel Bacall and they won't do it here. JAVIER BARDEM all the way.

Best Actress:

Cate Blanchett? Not a chance. Laura Linney will win one of these days, but this is not her year. Ellen Page has a decent shot at winning a split vote. Then it becomes hard. Either Marion Cotillard or Julie Christie has a great chance at winning. It's become quite a toss-up...but I think JULIE CHRISTIE will win. Just a hunch and I can easily be wrong.

Best Supporting Actress:

The hardest category of the lot. Atonement girl is probably the only one that can be safely discounted. Ruby Dee may have been honored by SAG, but I don't see the academy going that route. I didn't find her performance all that memorable. Tilda Swinton has a chance, but I'm just not feeling it for her, maybe another year. Cate Blanchett has a great chance too...but she also won recently and I just get a feeling that most won't vote for what amounts to a trick performance, even if it was good. That leaves AMY RYAN, who really did go all out in her performance and should squeak by the others.

Best Animated Film:

Surf's Up! Huh? Perspolis stands a decent chance since it was denied a Foreign Language nom...but RATATOUILLE can't be beat here. It's also French and most academy members won't stop hearing it from their kids if they don't give it the win.

Art Direction:

American Gangster and The Golden Compass....enjoy your nominations. There Will Be Blood might win as Jack Fisk is quite respected. Atonement possibly too, but save for a few set pieces...it's just your pretty English countryside again. SWEENEY TODD created a older London that perfectly fit in with the sensibility of the film. This might be the category to honor it in...give Tim Burton some love.

Cinematography:

Everyone talk about Roger Deakins splitting the vote. Who's really going to vote for Jesse James when his other film is the likely Best Picture winner? Atonement is a no. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly could take it as one of those 'let's honor it here' type of wins. No Country for Old Men should take the top prizes so THERE WILL BE BLOOD will most likely be honored here.

Costume Design:

Everyone talks about the green dress in Atonement. I can't remember it. Sweeney Todd and La Vie en Rose I remember basically for suits, I doubt the academy will honor that. Across the Universe? I don't really remember costumes per se. Elizabeth 2 has your average regal queenly dresses, I think the well has run dry there. Plus, who want to honor Elizabeth 2. ATONEMENT will win for this green dress thingy.

Best Director:

Jason Reitman should be happy with his nomination. I doubt the George Clooney love will transmit to Tony Gilroy. This might be the chance to honor Diving Bell and give it to Julian Schnabel...but I don't see it. Paul Thomas Anderson will make more movies, and there are those who did not like There's Blood!. JOEL AND ETHAN COEN will walk away with the prize. People may not like the ending....but I was on the edge of my seat during the film.

Documentary:

There's not giving it to Michael Moore again...not with Iraq in the mix. That knock out War/Dance since that's Africa and Taxi to the Dark Side as that's Afghanistan. Operation Homecoming is a recitation of letters so NO END IN SIGHT will take the prize and we'll get to hear a 45 second diatribe against our Iraq involvement.

Short Documentary:

Salim Baba was too slight. La Corona was amusing but ultimately pointless. Sari's Mother was a bit confusing and didn't have too much emotional heft. FREEHELD grabs you by the throat and squeezes out tears until it's over. It will take the prize and we'll get 45 seconds about equal rights for gay/lesbian partners.

Editing:

Into the Wild? Nope....not enough nominations to give it an Oscar. Diving Bell and Bourne Ultimatum have to sit back to another No Country and There's Blood! showdown. NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN should take it as people want to see what will happen since Roderick Jaynes doesn't really exist.

Foreign Language:

I've never heard of 4 of these films and have only seen THE COUNTERFEITERS. SO it wins because I say so.

Makeup:

Like Norbit will really win. Here's the chance to give LA VIE EN ROSE it's Oscar. Pirates 3 has too much CGI to give it a makeup award.

Music Score:

3:10 to Yuma and The Kite Runner no one really cares about. I don't remember the music from Michael Clayton or Ratatouille. But I do remember the typewriter from ATONEMENT and the academy will also.

Music Song:

If August Rush wins, it's a sign of the apocalypse. Enchanted had nice songs...but the fact that there's 3 of them here shows that not many other films had original songs...and these weren't up to Menken's usual standards. Once is one of those films that everyone who see it seems to love (except me), but the music was great, and here's a chance to honor it in a catagory no one remembers later on. So FALLING SLOWLY take the prize.

Best Picture:

Atonement just isn't good enough. Neither is Michael Clayton. There Will Be Blood had too many detractors from the start to take the prize. It's a Juno/No Country showdown. I think enough people had the reaction that I did to Juno...that it wasn't very good...and NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN is 2007's best picture. Hopefully the Paul Haggis "gotcha!" award isn't given out again.

Animated Short:

Tough call. A film might be better than others, but I find the short catagories better suited to voting your gut instinct. I Met The Walrus was too short and pointless. My Love and Madame Tulti-Pulti had fanatstic animation but were also boring as paint drying in hell. Meme Less Pigeons Vont au Paradis is cute but a one-note joke. PETER AND THE WOLF was a hilarious telling of the story and should be the winner.

Live Action Short:

Il Supplente was too strange. The Tonto Woman has been done before. Tanghi Argentini was cute and could bring in some votes...but it's a one joke film. At Night is probably the most depressing 40 minutes I have ever sat through. Excellent, but it really is a tough sell. LE MOZART DES PICKPOCKETS was a cute 30 minute romp and the audience favorite when I saw it. At Night is probably the better film, but I think gut instinct tends to win out here.

Sound Editing:

Oh boy...one of those categories only the people involved know what it's about. Bourne is just a loud (albeit excellent) action film. Transformers was just loud. Ratatouille is animated. I think here THERE WILL BE BLOOD will win out over No Country, as the academy will want to give it something.

Sound Mixing:

This goes to the loudest film, so there's no need to discuss the other 4. TRANSFORMERS.

Visual Effects:

Golden Compass...please. Transformers and Pirates 3 run neck and neck here as they both were basically CGI films. I think TRANSFORMERS will take it, as Pirates 3 was considered too bloated and who doesn't love giant robots (as opposed to a giant Naomi Harris).

Adapted Screenplay:

Another No Country/Blood battle. But There's Blood! used it's book more as a template and NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN really adapted it's book quite faithfully and into the best picture of the year.

Original Screenplay:

JUNO.....this way everyone can stop talking about it. I hated the screenplay...but it's another one of those 'give it something' awards.

And that's it........let's see Monday Morning how I did...enjoy the show!