Sunday, March 7, 2010

Oscar Time

Or at least I think it is, as Cablevision no longer carries ABC as of midnight this morning. Activate contingency plan A! Until then however, here are my predictions for who will take home to golden statue tonight. I'm going to go in the order that the Oscar website lists the categories.

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges

His momentum hasn't stopped, and while some people decry this as a lifetime achievement award, those people haven't seen the movie. He is that good.

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz

The man's been racking up the awards all season, and it is the best performance of the five.

Best Actress: Sandra Bullock

I think this award is due to two reasons. While Meryl Streep was wonderful, some people see it as half a performance since Amy Adams handled the other half of Julie and Julia. Add in Sandra Bullock playing Erin Brockovich, and the award goes to her.

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique

She was announced as the Oscar winner last March, I see no reason to bet against her this March.

Best Animated Feature: Up

While I personally prefer Mr. Fox, the fact that Up is nominated for Best Picture but won't win there practically guarantees its win here.

Best Art Direction: Avatar

Even though Avatar's art direction is mostly computer realized, voters will look past that since Pandora is such an amazing creation and award the Oscar

Best Cinematography: The Hurt Locker

I think Avatar's CGI will hurt it here, plus The Hurt Locker has picked up most of the pre-Oscar awards. So I'll go with The Hurt Locker. If I'm wrong, Avatar.

Best Costumes: The Young Victoria

Past history has told me to go with the film that features royalty (Elizabeth: The Golden Age). The Young Victoria is the sole movie about royalty here, so it wins.

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow

Since James Cameron has already won this award, and Hollywood is itching to bestow the honor to a woman, I see Ms. Bigelow taking the honor. Truthfully, I think she deserves it more than Cameron, I found The Hurt Locker to be the better movie than Avatar.

Best Documentary: The Cove

It's about the senseless slaughter of dolphins. Sentimentality points alone should give it the award. The spoiler here would be Food, Inc.

Best Documentary Short: China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province

In addition to being the better of the two films I saw from this category, the short deals with an earthquake, fresh in everybody's mind from Haiti. Not only that, but the focus point is the loss of children in that earthquake. It sounds callous, but that will do the trick.

Best Film Editing: The Hurt Locker

The bomb defusing scenes were some of the best editing I saw all year. Avatar had great battle scenes, but I think people expect that from James Cameron and won't necessarily vote the award to Avatar for that.

Best Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon

This one's a real tossup, as you have to be part of a special group who's watched all 5 nominees. Therefore, you have to guess what a small subset of the academy is thinking. Given that The White Ribbon was a great film, didn't contain too much over-the-top violence and that Michael Haneke is a well known name, I think that should do it.

Best Makeup: Star Trek


Best Score: Up

No one remembers the music from the other four, but the wordless sequence toward the beginning of Up was carried by the music, so I think that will translate into an award here.

Best Song: The Weary Kind

The Weary Kind of the only song of the five whose melody still floats through my mind. Plus, T Bone Burnett is well regarded in Hollywood, so I believe people will take the opportunity to reward him here.

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker

Given the new voting system for Best Picture this year, any of the ten films could probably take it. It all comes down to whether people want to award James Cameron again for another box office behemoth. I think most will say he already has one, so they'll vote The Hurt Locker.

Best Animated Short: Wallace and Gromit: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Nick Park has never lost when nominated and while this is not the best Wallace and Gromit short, history should repeat itself. If the votes want to give the finger to the academy, they'll vote Logorama.

Best Live Action Short: Instead of Abracadabra

Past ceremonies have shown that the award here tends to go to the most entertaining of the five shorts, meaning the funniest. As Instead of Abracadabra is the only comedy of the bunch, that should do it.

Best Sound Editing: Avatar

Most people still don't really know what this award is about, so they'll give it to the even bigger action film this year.

Best Sound Mixing: Avatar

Most people still don't really know what this award is about, so they'll give ti to the even bigger action film this year.

Best Visual Effects: Avatar

If Avatar doesn't win, something has gone seriously wrong.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air

While I would much prefer to see the award go to In The Loop (my #1 film of last year), Up in the Air has captured a moment in time, and Hollywood always wants to look as if it cares, so here is their chance.

Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds

I believe that the audacious reworking of WWII history and Tarantino's ear for great dialogue will help propel Basterds to the award over The Hurt Locker.

And there you have it, I'll mark later tonight or tomorrow how well I did. If any of you are in an Oscar pool, Good Luck!

1 comment:

Polt said...

I'll not be watching, as the Academmy voters are usually idiots and always vote as a herd of lemmings for whatever's biggest at that time, instead of what should get it.

Becuase of this, I predict an Avatar best picture oscar and Sandra bullock best actress, both of which are the wrong choice.